review · Evaluation, Strategy · 60–180 min · 3-15 people · medium energy

Contribution Analysis

Contribution analysis is a systematic approach to understanding an intervention's contribution to observed outcomes or impacts, acknowledging that multiple factors may be at play. It involves developing a theory of change, gathering evidence to support the theory, and ruling out alternative explanations.

When to use Contribution Analysis

Use this method when you need to assess the contribution of an intervention to a complex outcome, where other factors may also be contributing. It's particularly useful when you cannot use experimental designs.

What it solves

Difficulty attributing outcomes to specific interventions, lack of understanding of the relative importance of different factors, uncertainty about the effectiveness of an intervention

How to run Contribution Analysis, step by step

  1. Set the stage: Define the intervention and the outcome of interest. (15 min)
  2. Develop a theory of change: Map out the causal pathway from the intervention to the outcome. (30 min)
  3. Gather existing evidence: Collect data to support or refute the theory of change. (Ongoing)
  4. Assemble and assess the contribution story: Synthesize the evidence and assess the strength of the contribution claim. (45 min)
  5. Seek out additional evidence: Fill any gaps in the evidence base. (Ongoing)
  6. Revise the contribution story: Refine the theory of change and the contribution claim based on the new evidence. (30 min)

Materials needed

  • Whiteboard or flip chart
  • Markers or pens
  • Data
  • Analysis reports
  • Program documents

Facilitator tips

  • Involve stakeholders in the development of the theory of change.
  • Be transparent about the limitations of the analysis.

Common pitfalls

  • Developing an overly simplistic theory of change. Consider all relevant factors and pathways.
  • Failing to gather sufficient evidence. Invest time in collecting data from multiple sources.

Variations

  • Use a contribution tracing approach to map out the causal pathways.
  • Conduct a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to identify the combinations of factors that are associated with the outcome.

Running it online or hybrid

Use a collaborative document or whiteboard to develop the theory of change and gather evidence. Assign roles for data collection and analysis.

What it produces

A report documenting the theory of change, the evidence supporting it, and the alternative explanations that were ruled out.

Origin

Attributed to John Mayne — source

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