converge · Decision Making · 120–480 min · 5-20 people · low energy
Delphi Technique
The Delphi Technique is a structured communication method for achieving consensus among a group of experts on a specific topic through multiple rounds of anonymous feedback and iterative refinement. It's effective for forecasting, problem-solving, and strategic planning when diverse perspectives need to be synthesized.
When to use Delphi Technique
Use this method when you need to gather expert opinions, forecast future trends, or make decisions in complex situations where data is limited and diverse viewpoints exist. It's particularly useful when experts are geographically dispersed or have scheduling conflicts.
What it solves
Conflicting expert opinions, lack of data, difficulty achieving consensus in a group setting, dominant voices influencing decisions.
How to run Delphi Technique, step by step
- Define the problem or question clearly. (15 minutes)
- Identify and recruit a panel of experts. (Ongoing)
- Round 1: Send out an initial questionnaire to gather individual opinions anonymously. (Allow 1-2 weeks for responses)
- Analyze the responses and summarize the key themes and points of agreement/disagreement. (1-2 hours)
- Round 2: Distribute the summarized responses back to the experts, along with a new questionnaire prompting them to reconsider their initial opinions in light of the group's feedback. (Allow 1-2 weeks for responses)
- Repeat rounds 4 and 5 (typically 3-4 rounds) until a consensus is reached or the range of opinions converges. (Ongoing)
- Compile the final results and present the consensus view. (1 hour)
Materials needed
- Questionnaires (digital or paper)
- Email or online survey platform
- Spreadsheet software for data analysis
- Document for summarizing responses
Facilitator tips
- Clearly define the problem or question to ensure experts are focused.
- Maintain anonymity to encourage honest feedback.
- Provide clear and concise summaries of responses between rounds.
- Manage the process efficiently to avoid delays and maintain engagement.
Common pitfalls
- Low response rates: Ensure experts are committed and provide clear deadlines.
- Lack of convergence: Refine the questionnaires and provide more targeted feedback.
- Bias in summarizing responses: Use objective criteria and involve multiple people in the analysis.
Variations
- Face-to-face Delphi: Conduct rounds in a workshop setting with facilitated discussion.
- Real-time Delphi: Use online tools to gather and analyze responses in real-time.
Running it online or hybrid
Use online survey tools and collaborative documents to manage rounds and feedback asynchronously.
What it produces
A prioritized list of expert opinions, a consensus forecast, or a set of recommendations based on expert judgment.
Origin
Adapted from BetterEvaluation.org — source
Build a session around Delphi Technique
METODIC places Delphi Technique inside a complete, timed session plan — agenda, worksheets, facilitator guide and slides — matched to your group and goal.