Future Backcasting

When to use Future Backcasting

Use this method when you need to align a team around a long-term vision, identify strategic priorities, or explore the potential impact of current decisions on future outcomes.

What it solves

Lack of long-term vision, reactive decision-making, failure to anticipate future challenges and opportunities.

How to run Future Backcasting, step by step

1. **Select a Topic & Define Scenarios (15 mins):** Choose a relevant topic or industry and brainstorm 2-3 potential future scenarios (e.g., best-case, worst-case, most likely). Define a hypothetical year for each scenario and describe it briefly as a headline and short summary.
2. **Establish the Present (15 mins):** Use a persona, service description, or system scenario to clearly articulate the 'today' state. Highlight key information that could influence the future scenarios.
3. **Connect Future to Present (45 mins):** For each future scenario, collaboratively identify the key steps needed to move from the present to that future. For each step, note potential enablers and blockers.
4. **Identify Quick Wins (15 mins):** Brainstorm actions that can be taken in the short term to move closer to the desired future scenario. Prioritize actions based on impact and feasibility.

Materials needed

• Whiteboard or large paper
• Markers or pens
• Sticky notes
• Timer
• Examples of news articles or trends related to the chosen topic

Facilitator tips

• Encourage participants to think broadly and creatively about potential future scenarios.
• Ensure that the 'present' state is clearly defined and understood by all participants.
• Focus on identifying actionable steps that can be taken in the short term.

Common pitfalls

• Participants get stuck in the present and struggle to imagine future possibilities. - Encourage them to suspend disbelief and think outside the box.
• The future scenarios are too vague or unrealistic. - Ground the scenarios in current trends and data, but also allow for creative speculation.

Variations

• Use different types of future scenarios (e.g., Possible, Plausible, Probable, Preferred).
• Focus on a specific aspect of the future (e.g., technology, society, environment).

Running it online or hybrid

Use a shared digital whiteboard like Miro or Mural to collaboratively build timelines and capture ideas. Facilitate breakout rooms for smaller group discussions on specific future scenarios.

What it produces

A visual timeline connecting present actions to a desired future scenario, including key milestones, dependencies, and potential roadblocks.

Origin

Adapted from Service Design Tools — source

Build a session around Future Backcasting

METODIC places Future Backcasting inside a complete, timed session plan — agenda, worksheets, facilitator guide and slides — matched to your group and goal.

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