Navigating Uncertainty: Evidence-Based Decision Making

When to use Navigating Uncertainty: Evidence-Based Decision Making

Use this method when a team needs to make a decision in a complex situation where there is no clear right answer and multiple perspectives need to be considered. It's particularly useful when you want to foster critical thinking and evidence-based reasoning.

What it solves

Analysis paralysis, biased decision-making, lack of stakeholder consideration, relying on gut feeling instead of evidence.

How to run Navigating Uncertainty: Evidence-Based Decision Making, step by step

1. Introduction (10 mins) - Present a complex case from an expert's perspective. Allow participants to ask clarifying questions.
2. Asking (30 mins) - In teams of four, translate the complex problem into relevant questions for four sources: expert opinions, research findings, local evidence, and stakeholder implications.
3. Acquiring (30 mins) - For each source, define a search strategy to gather information. Compare individual search outcomes within the team.
4. Appraising (30 mins) - Develop criteria for selecting information (e.g., societal impact, inclusiveness, costs, benefits). Critically evaluate the validity and relevance of gathered evidence.
5. Aggregate (80 mins) - Aggregate the evidence to propose a decision, considering consequences for diverse stakeholders. Present the solution to other teams and engage in peer questioning about evidence gathering, appraisal, and aggregation.

Materials needed

• Case study or problem description
• Whiteboard or flip chart
• Markers
• Access to internet for research
• Peer-assessment rubric (optional)

Facilitator tips

• Emphasize the importance of diverse sources of evidence.
• Encourage critical evaluation of information sources.
• Ensure that stakeholder considerations are thoroughly addressed.

Common pitfalls

• Teams may struggle to formulate relevant questions. Provide examples and guidance.
• Teams may rely too heavily on one source of evidence. Encourage a balanced approach.
• Teams may not adequately consider stakeholder perspectives. Prompt them to think broadly about who is affected.

Variations

• Assign different sources of evidence to different team members.
• Use a pre-defined set of criteria for appraising evidence.
• Incorporate a debate or role-playing activity to explore different perspectives.

Running it online or hybrid

Use breakout rooms for team discussions and a shared online whiteboard (e.g., Miro, Mural) for collaborative question generation and evidence aggregation.

What it produces

A well-supported decision with justifications based on expert opinions, research findings, local evidence, and stakeholder considerations.

Origin

Adapted from Transition Makers Toolbox, based on evidence-based practice principles. — source

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