Negative Programme Theory

When to use Negative Programme Theory

Use this method when you need to anticipate and mitigate potential unintended negative impacts of a program or policy.

What it solves

Overconfidence in positive outcomes; failure to anticipate potential negative consequences.

How to run Negative Programme Theory, step by step

1. Review the program's logic model or theory of change (15 min).
2. Brainstorm potential negative impacts and unintended consequences (30 min).
3. Map out the causal pathways leading to these negative impacts (45 min).
4. Develop strategies to mitigate or prevent these negative impacts (30 min).

Materials needed

• Logic model or theory of change
• Whiteboard or flip chart
• Markers or pens

Facilitator tips

• Encourage participants to think critically and challenge assumptions.
• Create a safe space for discussing potentially sensitive issues.

Common pitfalls

• Resistance to considering negative impacts.
• Difficulty identifying realistic negative scenarios.

Variations

• Use a risk assessment matrix to prioritize potential negative impacts.
• Conduct a 'pre-mortem' exercise to simulate program failure.

Running it online or hybrid

Use a virtual whiteboard to collaboratively map out potential negative impacts and causal pathways.

What it produces

A diagram or narrative outlining potential negative impacts and their causal pathways.

Origin

Based on work by Carol Weiss — source

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