review · Problem Solving, Decision Making · 60–120 min · 1-10 people · medium energy
Process Tracing
Process tracing is a systematic method for investigating causal links between an intervention and observed outcomes. It involves gathering and analyzing evidence to assess the strength of support for a causal explanation, while also considering alternative explanations.
When to use Process Tracing
Use process tracing when you need to rigorously evaluate the impact of a program or policy, understand the mechanisms through which it achieved its effects, and identify potential unintended consequences.
What it solves
Lack of clarity on how a program achieved its results, difficulty in attributing outcomes to specific interventions, need for a robust and defensible evaluation.
How to run Process Tracing, step by step
- Define the outcome of interest and the intervention being evaluated. (15 minutes)
- Develop a theory of change outlining the causal pathway linking the intervention to the outcome. (30 minutes)
- Identify potential alternative explanations for the outcome. (15 minutes)
- Gather evidence to test the causal pathway and alternative explanations, using the four types of causal tests (straw-in-the-wind, hoop, smoking gun, doubly-definitive). (45 minutes)
- Analyze the evidence and draw conclusions about the strength of support for the causal explanation. (15 minutes)
Materials needed
- Whiteboard or flip chart
- Markers
- Sticky notes
- Relevant documents and data
- Process Tracing Worksheet (optional)
Facilitator tips
- Be prepared to adapt the theory of change as new evidence emerges.
- Encourage participants to challenge assumptions and consider alternative explanations.
- Focus on gathering high-quality evidence from multiple sources.
Common pitfalls
- Confirmation bias: Seeking out evidence that supports the preferred explanation while ignoring contradictory evidence. Mitigate by actively searching for disconfirming evidence.
- Data overload: Becoming overwhelmed by the amount of evidence. Mitigate by focusing on the most relevant and informative evidence.
Variations
- Use a simplified version of process tracing with fewer causal tests for less complex evaluations.
- Combine process tracing with other evaluation methods, such as contribution analysis or realist evaluation.
Running it online or hybrid
Use a shared document or whiteboard to capture evidence and causal links. Ensure clear communication channels for discussing findings.
What it produces
A detailed causal chain diagram, a report summarizing the evidence for and against different causal explanations, and a set of recommendations for improving the program.
Origin
Adapted from BetterEvaluation.org — source
Build a session around Process Tracing
METODIC places Process Tracing inside a complete, timed session plan — agenda, worksheets, facilitator guide and slides — matched to your group and goal.