converge · Decision Making, Problem Solving · 45–60 min · 1-10 people · medium energy
Smoking Gun Test
A 'smoking gun test' provides strong evidence to support a causal explanation, weakening alternative explanations without definitively ruling them out. It's like finding a murder suspect holding a recently fired gun.
When to use Smoking Gun Test
Use this test to identify causal factors that are strongly supported by the evidence. It helps to build confidence in the causal explanation and to prioritize areas for further investigation.
What it solves
Difficulty in identifying strong causal factors, need for compelling evidence to support a particular explanation, risk of overlooking important causal factors.
How to run Smoking Gun Test, step by step
- Identify potential causal factors that could have contributed to the outcome. (15 minutes)
- Gather evidence that would constitute a 'smoking gun' for each factor. (20 minutes)
- Assess whether the evidence meets the criteria for a 'smoking gun'. (10 minutes)
- Document the rationale for classifying each factor as having or not having 'smoking gun' evidence. (5 minutes)
Materials needed
- Whiteboard or flip chart
- Markers
- Sticky notes
- Relevant documents and data
Facilitator tips
- Ensure that the criteria for a 'smoking gun' are clearly defined and agreed upon.
- Be critical in assessing the evidence and avoid overinterpreting weak evidence.
- Be prepared to defend the classification of each factor.
Common pitfalls
- Defining criteria that are too weak: Leading to false positives. Mitigate by using rigorous and well-defined criteria.
- Overinterpreting weak evidence: Classifying factors as having 'smoking gun' evidence when the evidence is not strong enough. Mitigate by being critical in assessing the evidence.
Variations
- Use a scoring system to assess the strength of the evidence for each factor.
- Conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of different criteria on the results.
Running it online or hybrid
Use shared documents or online collaboration tools to present and discuss the evidence for and against each potential cause.
What it produces
A list of potential causal factors, with a clear indication of which ones are supported by 'smoking gun' evidence.
Origin
Adapted from BetterEvaluation.org — source
Build a session around Smoking Gun Test
METODIC places Smoking Gun Test inside a complete, timed session plan — agenda, worksheets, facilitator guide and slides — matched to your group and goal.