explore · Problem Solving, Investigation · 30–45 min · 1-10 people · low energy

Straw-in-the-Wind Test

A 'straw-in-the-wind' test provides preliminary, weak support for a causal explanation. It doesn't prove anything definitively, but suggests areas worth exploring further in your analysis.

When to use Straw-in-the-Wind Test

Use this test early in an investigation to identify potential causal factors that warrant deeper examination. It's helpful for generating hypotheses and narrowing the scope of inquiry.

What it solves

Uncertainty about where to begin an investigation, lack of clear direction for data collection, need to prioritize areas for further analysis.

How to run Straw-in-the-Wind Test, step by step

  1. Identify potential causal factors that could have contributed to the outcome. (10 minutes)
  2. Gather readily available evidence that might support or contradict each factor. (15 minutes)
  3. Assess the strength of the evidence for each factor, noting that 'straw-in-the-wind' tests provide only weak support. (10 minutes)
  4. Prioritize factors for further investigation based on the strength of the initial evidence. (10 minutes)

Materials needed

  • Whiteboard or flip chart
  • Markers
  • Sticky notes
  • Access to readily available data

Facilitator tips

  • Emphasize that the goal is to generate hypotheses, not to prove anything definitively.
  • Encourage participants to consider a wide range of potential factors.
  • Be aware of confirmation bias and actively seek out contradictory evidence.

Common pitfalls

  • Overinterpreting weak evidence: Treating 'straw-in-the-wind' tests as conclusive. Mitigate by emphasizing the preliminary nature of the findings.
  • Ignoring contradictory evidence: Focusing only on evidence that supports the preferred explanation. Mitigate by actively seeking out disconfirming evidence.

Variations

  • Use a survey or poll to gather initial impressions from a larger group.
  • Conduct a quick literature review to identify potential causal factors.

Running it online or hybrid

Use online polling tools or shared documents to gather initial impressions and identify areas for further investigation.

What it produces

A list of potential causal factors, ranked by the strength of initial support, and a plan for further investigation.

Origin

Adapted from BetterEvaluation.org — source

Build a session around Straw-in-the-Wind Test

METODIC places Straw-in-the-Wind Test inside a complete, timed session plan — agenda, worksheets, facilitator guide and slides — matched to your group and goal.

Generate a session with Straw-in-the-Wind Test · Try METODIC free