Facilitation · 45-90 minutes

PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment

The PreMortem is a strategic foresight technique that tasks a team with imagining a future where their proposed plan has failed spectacularly. By working backward from this hypothetical failure, the group identifies hidden risks and vulnerabilities that are often overlooked during the optimistic planning phase.

When to use PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment

This framework is most effective before the final approval of a project, during the transition from planning to execution, or when a team is suffering from overconfidence or groupthink.

How PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment works

Facilitators can integrate this method as a 'de-biasing' exercise at the conclusion of a design phase. After a plan is presented, the facilitator leads the group through a structured brainstorming session where participants act as 'coroners' to diagnose the causes of the plan's hypothetical death, followed by a collaborative session to strengthen the original strategy.

Phases of PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment

  1. Plan Briefing
  2. Imagining the Fiasco
  3. Generating Reasons for Failure
  4. Consolidating and Prioritizing Risks
  5. Revising the Plan

Key principles

  • Prospective Hindsight: Using the future to better understand the present.
  • Psychological Safety: Creating a space where dissent and the identification of flaws are rewarded.
  • Cognitive De-biasing: Actively countering optimism bias and the 'planning fallacy'.
  • Collective Intelligence: Leveraging the diverse perspectives of the entire team to find blind spots.

Best for

  • Strategic Planning
  • Project Management
  • Risk Mitigation
  • Team Alignment

Considerations

  • Requires a facilitator who can maintain a constructive tone to prevent the session from becoming overly negative.
  • Participants must be encouraged to write down their ideas individually before sharing to avoid social loafing or influence from senior leaders.
  • The method is only effective if the leadership is actually willing to modify the plan based on the findings.

Attribution & sources

Developed by Gary Klein, 2007

Primary source

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