Facilitation · 2-6 hour workshops

Three Horizons Framework

A strategic foresight and systems-thinking model used to navigate the transition from current, unsustainable systems to future, equitable models. It provides a visual language for groups to distinguish between innovations that merely patch the existing system and those that bridge the gap toward a transformative future.

When to use Three Horizons Framework

Effective during strategic planning, systems-change initiatives, and consensus-building sessions where stakeholders have competing priorities or are stuck in reactionary problem-solving.

How Three Horizons Framework works

Facilitators can use this as a collaborative mapping tool. Participants plot current systemic failures on the H1 timeline, define the ideal future state on H3, and then audit current projects (H2) to determine if they are 'H2-' (sustaining the old) or 'H2+' (paving the way for the new).

Phases of Three Horizons Framework

  1. Horizon 1 (H1): The Status Quo
  2. Horizon 2 (H2): Disruptive Innovation
  3. Horizon 3 (H3): The Desired Future

Key principles

  • Systems have natural lifecycles of decline and emergence.
  • Innovation is non-neutral; it either captures the status quo or transforms it.
  • Strategic choices can accelerate the transition to a desired future state.
  • The future (H3) is often already present in the form of small-scale 'pockets' of innovation.

Best for

  • Systems Thinking
  • Strategic Foresight
  • Consensus Building
  • Organizational Transformation

Considerations

  • H2- innovations (efficiency gains) can be deceptive because they improve the current system while inadvertently delaying necessary systemic shifts.
  • Requires participants to move past 'band-aid' thinking to address root causes.
  • The model acknowledges that the transition period (H2) is inherently unstable and requires careful management of tension.

Attribution & sources

Developed by Bill Sharpe of the International Futures Forum

Primary source

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