Assumption Autopsy

What participants gain

• Differentiate between known facts and hidden assumptions in product concepts
• Evaluate the structural integrity of ideas using objective criteria
• Shift cognitive framing from confirmation bias to critical falsification
• Prioritize which features require immediate user testing or technical spikes

Materials needed

• Masking tape to create a large 2x2 matrix on the wall
• Red sticky notes for identifying critical risks
• Dot voting stickers (3 per participant)
• Selected feature sticky notes from the previous exercise
• Risk assessment reference cards

How to run Assumption Autopsy, step by step

1. Distribute 3 dot stickers to each participant to vote on their favorite concepts from the previous method (3 min).
2. Transfer the top 5-7 voted ideas to a new workspace for analysis (2 min).
3. Introduce the Assumption Matrix, explaining the axes of Importance and Certainty (2 min).
4. Assign one feature to a small pair or trio of participants to analyze deeply.
5. Instruct teams to write down every assumption required for their feature to succeed on red sticky notes (5 min).
6. Guide teams to plot their feature and its associated red assumptions on the matrix (3 min).
7. Facilitate a rapid cross-examination where other teams challenge the placement on the Certainty axis (3 min).
8. Finalize the board, explicitly circling the items in the 'High Importance, Low Certainty' quadrant (2 min).

Facilitator tips

• Use the phrase 'What must be true for this to work?' repeatedly to dig out hidden assumptions.
• Watch for false certainty; challenge participants who claim an assumption is a 'known fact' without data.
• Keep the energy analytical but lighthearted to prevent the autopsy from feeling like an attack.
• If a feature has too many red assumptions, ask the group if it can be simplified into a smaller experiment.
• Ensure the axes are clearly labeled and visible from the back of the room.

Common challenges

• Defensiveness over original ideas - Remind the group that we are attacking the concept, not the creator.
• Everything is marked as 'High Importance' - Force a forced ranking constraint if clustering occurs.
• Confusion between certainty and probability - Clarify that certainty means 'we have evidence', not 'we think it will happen'.
• Analysis paralysis - Use a strict 1-minute timer per feature during the cross-examination phase.

Running it virtually

Create a 2x2 grid in your digital workspace and use anonymous cursors during the placement phase. Use the tool's timer and voting features to rapidly select the top ideas before moving them to the matrix.

Expected results

A prioritized map of assumptions highlighting which features are safe to build and which require immediate validation or redesign due to high-risk unknowns.

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