Cynefin-Driven Bet Consolidation

What participants gain

• Categorize strategic bets based on their inherent complexity and uncertainty
• Apply consent-based decision protocols to overcome executive gridlock
• Design appropriate execution strategies (experiments vs plans) for different bet types
• Eliminate low-value or overly risky bets from the 5-year strategy

Materials needed

• Pre-printed Cynefin framework posters
• The generated strategic bet cards from the previous exercise
• Red 'Objection' cards for each participant
• Green 'Consent' cards for each participant
• Whiteboard for capturing finalized bets

How to run Cynefin-Driven Bet Consolidation, step by step

1. Briefly teach the four domains of the Cynefin framework and the corresponding action models for each (10 min).
2. Present the first proposed strategic bet and ask the group to place it in one of the four complexity domains (10 min).
3. Facilitate a consent round: Ask if anyone has a 'paramount objection' to this categorization that would harm the company (10 min).
4. If an objection is raised, integrate the feedback and adjust the categorization or scope of the bet until consent is reached (10 min).
5. Repeat this categorization and consent process for the remaining top strategic bets (20 min).
6. For bets placed in the 'Complex' domain, guide the group to define one safe-to-fail experiment to test the assumption (10 min).
7. Finalize the board, ensuring the portfolio is balanced and not overly weighted in the 'Chaotic' or 'Obvious' domains (5 min).
8. Document the final approved bets and their complexity categories for the synthesis phase (0 min).

Facilitator tips

• Strictly enforce the definition of 'consent' (absence of paramount objections) versus 'consensus' (everyone agrees it's the best idea).
• Use the phrase 'Is this safe to try?' to move past perfection paralysis.
• Watch for the 'Complicated' trap, where executives assume a complex market problem can be solved just by hiring more experts.
• Keep the pace brisk; if a bet cannot reach consent after two rounds of integration, table it and move to the next.
• For virtual delivery, use digital polling tools to simultaneously reveal consent/objection to prevent groupthink.

Common challenges

• Participants confuse 'Complex' with 'Complicated' - Remind them that complicated has known unknowns (experts can solve it), while complex has unknown unknowns (requires experimentation).
• An executive uses the objection card to block an idea they simply dislike - Probe the objection by asking 'How does this directly harm our operational safety?'
• The portfolio ends up entirely in the 'Obvious' domain - Challenge the team's ambition; a 5-year strategy must contain complex leaps.
• Time runs out before all bets are categorized - Prioritize the most polarizing bets first, as they require the most robust debate.

Running it virtually

Use a digital whiteboard with a Cynefin background. Utilize the chat function for participants to type 'Consent' or 'Objection' simultaneously, followed by vocal elaboration for objections.

Expected results

A prioritized, categorized portfolio of 3-5 major strategic bets for the next five years, each with an agreed-upon execution posture (e.g., probe-sense-respond vs analyze-sense-respond).

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