Ideation · executive leadership team · 90 min

Dark Matter Scenario Fiction

This method thrusts executives into extreme, plausible future scenarios that threaten their core business model. By forcing them to ideate from within these 'dark matter' futures, it breaks the constraints of incremental planning. Use this to generate radical strategic bets and build adaptive resilience.

What participants gain

  • Generate 5-7 non-linear strategic opportunities
  • Identify existential threats hidden in current market trends
  • Develop cognitive flexibility in response to market disruption
  • Shift perspective from defensive planning to proactive creation

Materials needed

  • Pre-written scenario cards detailing extreme market shifts
  • Props representing future technologies or competitors
  • A3 scenario matrix worksheets
  • Thick sharpies for rapid sketching
  • Timer with audible alarms

How to run Dark Matter Scenario Fiction, step by step

  1. Divide the executive team into pairs and distribute one extreme scenario card to each duo.
  2. Instruct pairs to spend ten minutes silently reading and internalizing the constraints of their assigned future.
  3. Direct participants to adopt the persona of a disruptive competitor native to this new scenario.
  4. Guide pairs to brainstorm and sketch three aggressive moves this competitor would make against the company.
  5. Bring the full group back together and have each pair present their competitor's strategy in character.
  6. Facilitate a rapid-fire session where the full team ideates defensive and offensive counter-measures for each threat.
  7. Instruct participants to extract the most viable counter-measures that could be initiated in the present day.
  8. Plot these extracted ideas onto a scenario matrix to evaluate their robustness across multiple different futures.
  9. Finalize the session by selecting the top three resilient bets that survive across all scenarios.

Facilitator tips

  • Commit fully to the premise of the future scenarios to give participants permission to be imaginative.
  • Use a physical timer and sharp auditory cues to maintain high energy and urgency during the persona phase.
  • If participants default to current constraints, interrupt and remind them of the specific rules of their future scenario.
  • Encourage 'yes, and' thinking during the counter-measure ideation to build momentum.
  • Validate wild ideas quickly to maintain a divergent, non-judgmental atmosphere.

Common challenges

  • Executives refuse to engage with the roleplay - Shift the framing from 'acting' to 'competitive simulation' to appeal to their analytical side.
  • Scenarios are dismissed as unrealistic - Remind the room that the goal is cognitive stretching, not perfect prediction.
  • Ideation becomes too tactical - Ask 'How would this change our entire business model?' to elevate the thinking.
  • One pair dominates the readout - Strictly enforce time limits for presentations using a visible clock.

Running it virtually

Utilize breakout rooms for the pair work, providing each pair with a dedicated digital workspace containing their scenario prompt. Use digital timer overlays to maintain urgency.

Expected results

A portfolio of radical strategic bets and a mapped matrix of potential future scenarios, categorized by likelihood and impact.

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