Futures Wheel

What participants gain

• Identify direct and indirect consequences of a trend or decision.
• Understand the cascading effects and interdependencies within complex systems.
• Anticipate potential unintended outcomes and their implications.
• Develop a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of future possibilities.

Materials needed

• Large sheet of paper or whiteboard
• Markers or pens
• Sticky notes (optional)
• Timer
• Central trend or decision written on a card

How to run Futures Wheel, step by step

1. Write the central trend or decision in the center of the paper/whiteboard.
2. Brainstorm first-order consequences: What are the direct and immediate effects? (10 minutes)
3. For each first-order consequence, brainstorm second-order consequences: What are the effects of those effects? (15 minutes)
4. Repeat for third-order consequences: What are the effects of the second-order effects? (10 minutes)
5. Discuss the map: What are the most significant consequences? What are the potential risks and opportunities? (10 minutes)
6. Document key insights and action items.

Facilitator tips

• Encourage diverse perspectives to broaden the range of identified consequences.
• Use visual aids like a whiteboard to map connections between different levels of consequences.
• Limit each consequence to a single idea for clarity and easier analysis.

Common challenges

• Participants get stuck on the first level of consequences - Solution: Prompt them with 'And then what happens?' to push them to deeper levels.
• The discussion becomes too negative - Solution: Remind participants to consider both positive and negative consequences.
• Difficulty connecting consequences across different levels - Solution: Facilitate the discussion by asking 'How does this consequence affect that one?'

Running it virtually

Use a virtual whiteboard tool like Miro or Mural. Participants can add sticky notes with their consequences. Use the connection tool to draw lines between causes and effects.

Expected results

A visual map of first, second, and third-order consequences, revealing potential impacts and dependencies. Teams will gain a better understanding of the ripple effects of decisions and identify potential risks and opportunities.

Build a session around Futures Wheel

METODIC drops Futures Wheel into a complete session plan with timing, materials, worksheets, and a facilitator guide — for any workshop, meeting, or team session.

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