Risk Thermometer: Prioritization & Impact Mapping

What participants gain

• Participants will collaboratively assess the likelihood and impact of potential project risks.
• Participants will prioritize risks based on their potential impact on project success.
• Participants will develop a shared understanding of the project's risk landscape.

Materials needed

• Whiteboard or large paper
• Markers (multiple colors)
• Sticky notes (from previous activity)
• Dot stickers (one color per participant)
• Pre-drawn 2x2 Risk Assessment Matrix

How to run Risk Thermometer: Prioritization & Impact Mapping, step by step

1. Introduce the risk assessment matrix and explain its purpose (5 min).
2. Explain the axes of the matrix (likelihood and impact) (2 min).
3. Guide the team in categorizing the sticky notes from the previous activity based on their likelihood and impact, plotting them on the matrix (15 min).
4. Distribute dot stickers to each participant (1 min).
5. Instruct participants to use their dot stickers to vote for the most critical risks on the matrix (5 min).
6. Tally the votes and identify the top 5-7 risks with the highest priority (2 min).
7. Encourage open discussion and debate about the placement of risks on the matrix (2 min).
8. Remind participants that this is not about assigning blame, but about identifying and mitigating potential problems (2 min).

Facilitator tips

• Prepare the risk assessment matrix beforehand to save time.
• Clearly define the axes of the matrix (likelihood and impact) to ensure consistent categorization.
• Encourage participants to justify their dot voting choices to foster deeper discussion.
• Limit the number of dots each participant receives to prevent voting imbalances.
• Facilitate a discussion about any disagreements in categorization or prioritization.

Common challenges

• Participants struggle to agree on the likelihood or impact of a risk: Facilitate a discussion to explore different perspectives and reach a consensus.
• The matrix becomes overcrowded with risks: Focus on the top 5-7 risks with the highest priority.
• Participants are hesitant to challenge the categorization of risks by leadership: Remind them that this is a safe space to voice their concerns.
• The dot voting process becomes competitive: Emphasize that the goal is to prioritize the most critical risks, not to 'win' the vote.

Running it virtually

Use a virtual whiteboard tool like Miro or Mural. Create a digital risk assessment matrix and use virtual dot voting features.

Expected results

A prioritized risk assessment matrix highlighting the most critical threats to the project's success. This matrix will serve as the foundation for the subsequent risk mitigation planning activity.

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