Strategy · advanced · 60 min

Scenario Planning

Develop multiple plausible future scenarios to prepare for uncertainty. Helps organizations anticipate different possibilities, test strategies, and make more resilient decisions in a volatile environment.

What participants gain

  • Identify the key drivers of change and their potential impact.
  • Develop multiple plausible future scenarios.
  • Test strategies against different scenarios.
  • Make more resilient decisions in a volatile environment.

Materials needed

  • Whiteboard or large sheet of paper
  • Markers or pens
  • Sticky notes (optional)
  • Scenario planning template
  • Timer

How to run Scenario Planning, step by step

  1. Identify the key drivers of change: What are the most important factors that will shape the future? (15 minutes)
  2. Develop multiple scenarios: What are the different ways these drivers could play out? (20 minutes)
  3. Analyze the implications of each scenario: What would be the impact on our organization? (15 minutes)
  4. Test strategies against each scenario: Which strategies are most resilient and adaptable? (10 minutes)
  5. Document the scenarios and their implications.

Facilitator tips

  • Encourage diverse perspectives and challenge conventional wisdom.
  • Focus on identifying the key drivers of change and their potential impact.
  • Use storytelling to bring the scenarios to life and make them more engaging.

Common challenges

  • Participants struggle to think beyond the present - Solution: Provide examples and prompts to stimulate their imagination.
  • The scenarios become too optimistic or pessimistic - Solution: Ensure that the scenarios are plausible and grounded in reality.
  • Lack of buy-in from key stakeholders - Solution: Involve all stakeholders in the scenario planning process and address their concerns.

Running it virtually

Use a virtual whiteboard like Miro or Mural. Create a canvas with different sections for each scenario. Use breakout rooms for small group discussions. Facilitate a virtual gallery walk to share the scenarios.

Expected results

A set of plausible future scenarios, each with a distinct narrative and set of implications. Teams will develop a deeper understanding of the uncertainties they face and be better prepared to make strategic decisions in a rapidly changing world.

Build a session around Scenario Planning

METODIC drops Scenario Planning into a complete session plan with timing, materials, worksheets, and a facilitator guide — for any workshop, meeting, or team session.

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