Speculative Futures Cone

What participants gain

• Understand the Futures Cone framework and its different zones.
• Brainstorm plausible, probable, possible, and preposterous futures related to sustainability and banking.
• Identify key risks and opportunities associated with each scenario.
• Develop strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.
• Enhance their ability to think strategically about the future.

Materials needed

• Whiteboard or large paper
• Markers of different colors
• Futures Cone diagram
• Post-it notes
• Timer

How to run Speculative Futures Cone, step by step

1. 1. Introduce the Futures Cone framework and its different zones (Plausible, Probable, Possible, Preposterous).
2. 2. Divide participants into small groups (3-5 people).
3. 3. Ask each group to brainstorm potential future scenarios related to sustainability and banking, placing them within the appropriate zone of the Futures Cone.
4. 4. Have each group select 1-2 scenarios to explore in more detail, identifying the key risks and opportunities.
5. 5. Each group presents their scenarios and analysis to the larger group.
6. 6. Facilitate a discussion about the implications of each scenario for the bank's strategy.
7. 7. Document the key insights and action items.

Facilitator tips

• Encourage participants to think outside the box and challenge their assumptions about the future.
• Provide examples of speculative futures from other industries to inspire creativity.
• Use visual aids to illustrate the Futures Cone and its different zones.

Common challenges

• Participants struggle to differentiate between the different zones - Provide clear definitions and examples of each zone.
• Discussions become too focused on the present - Encourage participants to think about long-term trends and potential disruptions.
• Participants get stuck on assigning causes - Review the root causes and ask for evidence.

Running it virtually

Use a virtual whiteboard or online presentation tool to create a shared Futures Cone diagram. Participants can add their ideas using virtual sticky notes or text boxes.

Expected results

Participants will develop a range of potential future scenarios related to sustainability and banking. They will identify key risks and opportunities, and begin to develop more resilient and adaptable strategies.

Build a session around Speculative Futures Cone

METODIC drops Speculative Futures Cone into a complete session plan with timing, materials, worksheets, and a facilitator guide — for any workshop, meeting, or team session.

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