Strategy · intermediate · 60 min

Three Horizons

Analyze the interplay of current, emerging, and future trends across three time horizons. Helps organizations navigate disruption, identify opportunities for innovation, and develop a long-term strategic vision.

What participants gain

  • Identify the key trends and disruptions shaping the future.
  • Analyze the interplay of current, emerging, and future trends.
  • Develop a long-term strategic vision that anticipates future challenges and opportunities.
  • Foster a culture of innovation and adaptability within the organization.

Materials needed

  • Whiteboard or large sheet of paper
  • Markers or pens
  • Sticky notes (optional)
  • Timer
  • Pre-prepared timeline with three horizons marked

How to run Three Horizons, step by step

  1. Introduce the Three Horizons framework: Horizon 1 (current business), Horizon 2 (emerging trends), Horizon 3 (future possibilities).
  2. Analyze the current business in Horizon 1: What are our strengths and weaknesses? (10 minutes)
  3. Identify emerging trends in Horizon 2: What are the new technologies, markets, and business models that are emerging? (15 minutes)
  4. Imagine future possibilities in Horizon 3: What could the future look like in 10-20 years? (15 minutes)
  5. Discuss the interplay of the three horizons: How will the emerging trends and future possibilities impact our current business? (10 minutes)
  6. Document key insights and action items.

Facilitator tips

  • Use visual aids like a timeline to illustrate the three horizons.
  • Encourage participants to think beyond the limitations of the present.
  • Focus on identifying the key trends and disruptions that will shape the future.

Common challenges

  • Participants get stuck in the present and struggle to imagine the future - Solution: Provide examples and prompts to stimulate their imagination.
  • Difficulty identifying the key trends and disruptions - Solution: Conduct thorough research and analysis of the industry and market.
  • Lack of alignment on the strategic vision - Solution: Facilitate a discussion to reach a shared understanding of the desired future.

Running it virtually

Use a virtual timeline tool like Miro or Mural. Participants can add sticky notes with their analysis for each horizon. Use the voting feature to prioritize trends and opportunities.

Expected results

A comprehensive analysis of the current, emerging, and future trends shaping the organization's environment. Teams will gain a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead and develop a long-term strategic vision.

Build a session around Three Horizons

METODIC drops Three Horizons into a complete session plan with timing, materials, worksheets, and a facilitator guide — for any workshop, meeting, or team session.

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